Leituras do grupo 2014.1 – Texto 6

Na próxima segunda-feira, dia 28 de abril, o texto em discussão no Grupo PONTE será Todo tweet conta? Como a análise de sentimento das mídias sociais pode melhorar nosso conhecimento sobre as preferências políticas dos cidadãos em casos como da Itália e da França.

Autores: Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano Iacus e Giuseppe Porro

Resumo: The growing usage of social media by a wider audience of citizens sharply increases the possibility of investigating the web as a device to explore and track political preferences. In the present paper we apply a method recently proposed by other social scientists to three different scenarios, by analyzing on one side the online popularity of Italian political leaders throughout 2011, and on the other the voting intention of French Internet users in both the 2012 presidential ballot and the subsequent legislative election. While Internet users are not necessarily representative of the whole population of a country’s citizens, our analysis shows a remarkable ability for social media to forecast electoral results, as well as a noteworthy correlation between social media and the results of traditional mass surveys. We also illustrate that the predictive ability of social media analysis strengthens as the number of citizens expressing their opinion online increases, provided that the citizens act consistently on these opinions.

Link: http://goo.gl/jkeftL

As reuniões do PONTE são abertas ao público e acontecem semanalmente, às segundas-feiras, às 18h, no Centro de Humanidades II (CH2), no prédio “Poleiro”, da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC).